In my life, I survived 9 blasts, what is the probability can any great mathematician tell me?
Lets see if we can work it out.
You have to be in the right place at the right time to get hit.
Let's assume blast radius is 100m. If you are in you will get hurt otherwise not. Now a circle of that radius has an area of 0.0314 sqKm. What is the area of mumbai city ? lets say 100 sqkm. So that makes 3200 circles. But that is a very large space, what is the area of the main city, its scattered around isn't it. Lets say this interesting area is just 10sqkm. That means 320 circles.
You must be in the correct circle to get hurt
- 1 bomb. so your chances are 1 in 320.
- 2 bombs, then 1 in 160,
- 3 bombs then 1 in 106.
Now you must be there at the right time. How long does it take to walk 100m. At an avg pace lets say it takes one minute to walk that far. Best window for bomb is working hours, no point setting a bomb to go off in the middle of the night. So lets say working hours 9am - 9 pm. That is 12 hours or 720 minutes.
Now to be in the right time at the right place you multiply the time with the area so....
- chances of catching 1 bomb are 720 * 320 = 1 in 230,000
- chances of catching 2 bombs are 720 * 160 = 1 in 115,200
- chances of catching 3 bombs are 720 * 106 - 1 in 76,320
That is if you are walking in that 10sqkm for 12 hrs every day. But you do not walk this long, you might walk max 1 hr outdoors a day or even less.
Let us say if there is one bomb blast everyday in mumbai, it will be 7,560 years before you get hit.
The chances are 1 in 2.75 million or slightly under 1 milllion for three bombs a day, everyday.
So my dear amish you can see why nine times is really not enough 🙂