@blr_p - thanks for the calculations!
Let us pass this to Rahul Gandhi, he will put that in press statement too.
"We can stop 99% of attacks but not 1%. And government protects you 27,49,999 times, it is just your bad luck if you are victim of the blast!"
No, the govt cannot say that. I gave that answer because you wanted to know what YOUR chances were of surviving a blast. There is another point to make here
For every blast there will always be deaths & injuries.
If you look at the figures of this one, it is ~20 killed, 150 injured. So every time there will be casualties. There will also be destruction to property. Whereas YOU may escape others will not because the population of mumbai is at least 15 million. That means chances of dying were slightly under a million and of sustaining an injury were 1 in 100,000 for this blast alone.
I don't see those figures changing because since 2006, we've not seen deaths in the high tens. Its mostly been low tens. Why ? its harder to plot such a large operation, there were 7 blasts i think in that one day and used trains so many ppl crowded in one area. How many blasts have there been in train stations since, none. Everybody is more alert about unaccompanied baggage now. I never hear about RDX being used anymore so its gotten harder to get it since. So the intensity has come down. That is one positive i can see here.
Btw my maths abt 99% says. Average 5 blasts a year in country. So government shud have stopped 495 blasts a year.
You can stop a blast only if you have caught the terrorist who planned it. Now assuming atleast 5 terrorists per blast. Government shud have caught 2475 terrorists per year. Let us say, 75% manage to escape. So 619 terrorists should have been caught last year.
So where are they? Will Rahul Gandhi clarify?
This is the other point. I've not recalled any reports showing how the govt foiled any attacks. They might have apprehended ppl, and they have over the years. But no way i can say to directly show that look we caught this guy just before he wanted to blow this or that up.
But he is making the general point where even in the ideal case that they apprehended 99 out of 100 attempts, just one has to succeed to make us unhappy. That is a fact. Its a very dificult situation. Maybe he should not say this because it can be misinterpreted.
And if he says that only 150-200 were caught (which is also too high i suppose), then that means their TERRORIST CATCH PERCENTAGE is way too low. So how can he say that government is stopping 99% of terrorists?
And I also dont think that terrorists can plan 500 blasts a year. Full 99% statement is FLAWED and clearly statement of person who has no idea what he is saying.
He is trying to put a postive spin where its difficult to do so. The point here is it does not matter who said it, if it was another party they would have said the same. That means regardless of the party in charge there will be explosions. That is what needs to be tackled.
Forget who makes the statements, instead ask why are these operations successful.
Besides, after 26/11 you voted back the same NCP party isn't it. So you had a chance to change but your ppl felt it was not necessary. What am i to conclude from this ?
A more general point i would like to make is this blaming of Pakistan has got to stop. They might plan whatever over there, its our job to protect the country from all enemies domestic or foreign. just becasue something is planned over there does not mean it has to succeed here where it most likely is our own ppl doing the legwork.
Let us pass this to Rahul Gandhi, he will put that in press statement too.
"We can stop 99% of attacks but not 1%. And government protects you 27,49,999 times, it is just your bad luck if you are victim of the blast!"
No, the govt cannot say that. I gave that answer because you wanted to know what YOUR chances were of surviving a blast. There is another point to make here
For every blast there will always be deaths & injuries.
If you look at the figures of this one, it is ~20 killed, 150 injured. So every time there will be casualties. There will also be destruction to property. Whereas YOU may escape others will not because the population of mumbai is at least 15 million. That means chances of dying were slightly under a million and of sustaining an injury were 1 in 100,000 for this blast alone.
I don't see those figures changing because since 2006, we've not seen deaths in the high tens. Its mostly been low tens. Why ? its harder to plot such a large operation, there were 7 blasts i think in that one day and used trains so many ppl crowded in one area. How many blasts have there been in train stations since, none. Everybody is more alert about unaccompanied baggage now. I never hear about RDX being used anymore so its gotten harder to get it since. So the intensity has come down. That is one positive i can see here.
Btw my maths abt 99% says. Average 5 blasts a year in country. So government shud have stopped 495 blasts a year.
You can stop a blast only if you have caught the terrorist who planned it. Now assuming atleast 5 terrorists per blast. Government shud have caught 2475 terrorists per year. Let us say, 75% manage to escape. So 619 terrorists should have been caught last year.
So where are they? Will Rahul Gandhi clarify?
This is the other point. I've not recalled any reports showing how the govt foiled any attacks. They might have apprehended ppl, and they have over the years. But no way i can say to directly show that look we caught this guy just before he wanted to blow this or that up.
But he is making the general point where even in the ideal case that they apprehended 99 out of 100 attempts, just one has to succeed to make us unhappy. That is a fact. Its a very dificult situation. Maybe he should not say this because it can be misinterpreted.
And if he says that only 150-200 were caught (which is also too high i suppose), then that means their TERRORIST CATCH PERCENTAGE is way too low. So how can he say that government is stopping 99% of terrorists?
And I also dont think that terrorists can plan 500 blasts a year. Full 99% statement is FLAWED and clearly statement of person who has no idea what he is saying.
He is trying to put a postive spin where its difficult to do so. The point here is it does not matter who said it, if it was another party they would have said the same. That means regardless of the party in charge there will be explosions. That is what needs to be tackled.
Forget who makes the statements, instead ask why are these operations successful.
Besides, after 26/11 you voted back the same NCP party isn't it. So you had a chance to change but your ppl felt it was not necessary. What am i to conclude from this ?
A more general point i would like to make is this blaming of Pakistan has got to stop. They might plan whatever over there, its our job to protect the country from all enemies domestic or foreign. just becasue something is planned over there does not mean it has to succeed here where it most likely is our own ppl doing the legwork.
