Something about Gold (XAU) ...

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desib0y2011

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Good Evening friends,

I'm going to put in my opinion about Gold in here (you are free to follow/believe in your own).
Now, I'm not a gold bug but at the present economic situation, I'm a big fan of this metal. Now when I'm talking about Gold, my favorite is the physical metal and lesser preference is towards the electronic gold. well, firsts I'd like to present the big picture here ...


As you can see above, since Oct 2008, we're in this Mega Uptrend till Sept 2011 where it topped out and toppled. I believe there was a massive attempt to suppress the price in futures market - where central banks all over the world woke up and wished to purchase this physical metal at better and cheaper prices.

We(central banks) wrote and distributed/sold paper/electronic IOU in heavy quantities (trillions) so that prices depreciates. We also benefited with the magic QE word. At lower prices (say approx US$1550) we buy back physical metals.

Why are WE buying so much physical gold?
Think about it!

consider this as a tiny effort on my part to alert you at the nick of time. Feel free to laugh.
 
I am sorry but I can't figure out weather you are recommending gold or not 🙁 ... Anyway according to me Gold is a good investment only for the amt u will need to give ur daughter/son in the future when they are getting married... As an investment ur own business, property & stocks are much...
 
Hi Rajadeep,

... at the present economic situation, I'm a big fan of this metal. Now when I'm talking about Gold, my favorite is the physical metal and lesser preference is towards the electronic gold.

consider this as a tiny effort on my part to alert you at the nick of time. Feel free to laugh.


Gold is a good investment only for the amt u will need to give ur daughter/son in the future ... an investment ur own business, property & stocks are much...

I hope you understand what is "Asset Class" in the world of investments. Stock, Bonds, Bullion(eg Gold etc), currency, Land & property all comes under an umbrella called asset class. All of these, undergoes cycles - Up and Down. It's beautifully explained in below video. sometimes we need to think beyond our usual way of thinking ...

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY
Don't watch it once - watch it at least 6 to 10 times with an open mind, ... allow the concept to sink in. Every time you watch it, you'll catch something new.

...
...
An interesting recent news piece ...

One full hour before Bernanke’s testimony [June 7], the bullion banks started selling. Over the next 4 hours, the bullion banks sold the equivalent of 515 metric tons of paper gold. This was in just 4 hours, and again, the selling started one hour before Bernanke’s testimony.

The selling went on for another 3 hours after the Fed Chairman began to speak, and as I said, over 515 metric tons of paper gold was sold. During this entire takedown, there was zero physical gold available for sale in the market. However, this action did create tremendous supply for the Eastern buyers to lock in the spot price of gold. This will patiently be converted to physical in the coming weeks.

Read the full article here, here and here ...
Code: 
hssp://etfdailynews.com/2012/06/13/the-arbitrageur-gold-manipulation-conspiracy-theory-revisited-gld-iau-phys-slv-agq/hssp://www.acting-man.com/?p=17584hssp://www.millionaireby33.com/2012/06/what-happened-to-golds-big-nosedive.htmlhssp://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3885/last-desperate-acts?page=1
can someone in here fire up the chart and post it here on the day of the event?
 
My fundamental view on Gold - SellMy technical view on Gold - BuyClearly this asset class is in a big bubble zone waiting to burst.
 
We(central banks) wrote and distributed/sold paper/electronic IOU in heavy quantities (trillions) so that prices depreciates. We also benefited with the magic QE word. At lower prices (say approx US$1550) we buy back physical metals.

Why are WE buying so much physical gold?
Think about it!


if central bank action were so important for the prices of the GOLD, and also controlled gold prices ........can you explain why the hell britain sold 400 tons of gold in in 2000 and lost 11 BILLION GBP because of that sale???

The decision to sell the gold was ". . . one of the
worst economic judgements ever made by a chancellor.”

In this respect, it is noteworthy to quote a few things that
George Osborne, the U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer
(what a beautiful name for a Minister of Finance!), said in
his 2012 budget speech: "Gordon Brown's sale of 400
tons of gold in 1999 has cost the United Kingdom GBP11
billion". The decision to sell the gold was ". . . one of the
worst economic judgements ever made by a chancellor.” Brown was Chancellor of the
Exchequer under the then ruling Labour Party

Osborne’s dig at the opposition Labour Party during his March 21 budget
speech led to an uproar in House of Commons. He also announced the
Treasury is getting back into bullion. "We are also taking the
opportunity to rebuild Britain’s reserves, which had fallen to historically
low levels", said Osborne, "I can confirm our gold holdings have risen in
value to £11 billion. This does not include the 400 or so tonnes of gold
sold a decade ago for £2 billion, and which would now be worth six times
that at over £13 billion pounds."

http://www.europeangoldcentre.com/files/GV-1204.pdf
 

To me, Gold has to be just a proportion of ur assets. The right threshold would be max 8-9% if u have option to invest in Real estate, business, stock market. If u dont have business, then it can be around 15-20%. And if not even real estate, then well it shud be 35-40%!
 
gold can never ever be 40% of ur portfolio , gold is a single commodity, what if it doesnt run????, my view still remains as previous buy as much as u need for future needs. thats it.for making money we have a roaring bull markets in indian stocks, so buy mutual funds , u can even buy rs 500 a month, no need to worry about amount, ur risks are hedged as u have taken top3 mutual funds in india , and some stocks will fail but some will run.
 
But then, there always is a risk of the markets crashing and even the best stocks halving in value. Yes that wud be an opportunity to average out ur cost, and but then the question when u look to do that will b - How much will it further fall? If u take the 2008 crash, majority of people must have averaged at 15k level or 12k level of Sensex..... But, what happened? It went further below!But gold, will never ditch u like that. Yes temporarily u will see it lose 8-10%, but post that it recovers much more than that, in equal amount of time.
 
i have no idea how did u come up with the idea" gold will never ditch"

since the highs of around 800 in 1980 it crashed for some 20 -23 years , before going up again after 23 years in 2001-03 that too with its own speeds.

truth is stranger than fiction buddy.:wink_2:

not only that it fell 70% from highs of 800 + levels
 
Agree with ur point buddy. I wasn't aware of this old a chart! But still, I have 1 positive even if that were to happen - u can make ornaments out of gold, but not out of the stocks that u see in ur brokerage account 😛 😀
 
yes buy gold at 32000 rs and when it crashes to 20000rs make ornaments??? doesnt make any sense , buy mutual funds for long term 5 + years and u will make money , bull market will last for atleast 15 years now .goold's time as per me and elliottwave is over , even if its not over it will be over soon , its not going to moon. just in india ppl think physical stuff is better .
 
But then, there always is a risk of the markets crashing and even the best stocks halving in value. Yes that wud be an opportunity to average out ur cost, and but then the question when u look to do that will b - How much will it further fall?
If u take the 2008 crash, majority of people must have averaged at 15k level or 12k level of Sensex..... But, what happened? It went further below!
.

never ever in ur life average ur falling stocks, is the golden rule

who knows this, must have felt less pain
 
I look to average only fundamentally strong stocks. 😛 If nothing, u earn tax free dividend on it time to time, and then, when the stock turns positive, it gives u a lot. Have seen many people benefitting out of averaging good stocks. I have experienced it myself as well, except for the dividend thing, since it wasnt declared in that short period.
 
Guys gold prices are rising buy they will soon fall . Around 1984 (IIRC) gold prices did fall . We Indians never saw the declining prices due to rise In dollar . The purchasing power in Indian Re has declined in the past year but it will Rise . US has a lot of Debt , it will do something to loosen the burden , in that case dollar will fall . In the long term people can make money in Securities . Unless Kapil Sibbal comes up with something weird . PS- I just hate SibbalEdit - declining gold prices has already been mentioned on previous page.
 

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